Will the United States legalize real money prediction markets by June 1, 2023?
5
100Ṁ137Jun 23
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I feel like the title sums it up pretty well. I consider this to be a major barrier to the development of the markets at the moment.
We'll say that this one will be resolved positively if the federal government allows at least some real money markets to exist, even if there's some sort of onerous licensing scheme or a particularly painful set of regulations, provided that those regulations don't break the fundamental operation of the market. I am considering "real money" to mean "permits dollar-denominated predictions" here, which is a judgement merely about adoptability, not the soundness of crypto.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
If prediction markets become mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it mostly because of a judicial ruling?
59% chance
At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?
"At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?"
57% chance
At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2025?
"At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?"
49% chance
"At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?"
48% chance
"At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?"
49% chance
[Metaculus] Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?
50% chance
Will ChatGPT Be Employed to Settle Prediction Markets Due to Its Liquidity by the End of 2024?
50% chance
Will Mantic Markets still be using a Dynamic Parimutuel system by Feb 01, 2022?
81% chance