Should Manifold Markets implement this feature: Pre-commit to a resolution mechanism
4
Ṁ138
Feb 1
32%
chance
The simplest version of this feature is that the market becomes a yes/no poll, and if it closes with % chance greater than 50%, it resolves to yes, otherwise it resolves to no. I guess exactly 50% would resolve to "N/A" or "MKT" A more advanced feature would make it more like a poll, allowing the creator to specify the choices (i.e., A, B, or C), and the market resolves in favour of the plurality choice. Some even more complex variations (that I wouldn't recommend implementing right away, but are neat to think about) - Specify thresholds for particular resolutions (e.g., "this resolves to yes if % chance is greater than 75%", or "this multiple-choice question resolves to whichever option has majority support, otherwise it resolves to N/A or MKT"). - Instead of a multiple-choice poll, allow ranked choice voting or whatever other exotic voting mechanism. I commit to resolving this market to whichever option has the greatest support, but it would be really convenient if I could make a platform-enforced promise to that effect! #ManifoldMarkets #FeatureRequest
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You might well need more than 0 time to make a correct resolution; we need a close date that != the resolution date for somethings. Also, not sure how this would work for things with a chance of a N/A resolution.
I guess you could mitigate that by specifying maximum trade size, which would force cheaters to make fake accounts rather than huge bets. Or you could introduce a quadratic-voting like system, which would make buying the resolution a lot more expensive (potentially prohibitively so, if you tune the parameters correctly)
Seems useful but also subject to manipulation on the margins; if we wind up with accounts sufficiently rich in fake money they could buy the resolution of such markets outright if they have enough market making power.

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