Will Manifold Markets have a better Brier score than Matt Yglesias on the #MattYglesias2022 questions?
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Ṁ65Jan 1
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Manifold Markets created markets corresponding to ten of Matt Yglesias's predictions from https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions-are-hard. If, on these questions, the Brier score of Manifold Markets' predictions is better than the Brier score of Yglesias's, then this will resolve YES. I will score Manifold Markets using the predictions from February 1.
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