LLM gets IMO gold
Predicted top score
LLM becomes a Pokemon Master with minimal assistance
OpenAI claims to have achieved AGI by the end of 2025
Probability of AI compromising systems by end of 2025
Model defined as ASL-3 released by end of 2025
Chance of claiming the ARC-AGI grand prize
Chance of passing Long Bets variation of the Turing Test
Chance of solving a million-dollar math problem
Risk of AI being used for automated blackmail by 2028
At least 1/1000 Americans talks weekly with one by 2028
AI generates a high-quality movie with a single prompt by 2028
Reliable general household robot available by 2030
Break in trend for GDP growth, GDP/capita, productivity, or unemployment by 2028
AI as big as a political issue as abortion by 2028
AI plays a random computer game at human-level by 2028
AI plays a random computer game as well as a human after self-play by 2028