LLM gets IMO gold medal
Predicted top score
Probability of AI compromising systems by end of 2025
Model defined as ASL-3 by Anthropic released by end of 2025
Chance of claiming the ARC-AGI grand prize
Chance of passing Long Bets variation of the Turing Test
Chance of solving a million-dollar math problem
Risk of AI being used for automated blackmail by 2028
At least 1/1000 Americans talks weekly with one by 2028
Break in trend for GDP growth, GDP/capita, productivity, or unemployment by 2028
AI plays a random computer game at human-level by 2028
AI plays a random computer game as well as a human after self-play by 2028