Will Honduran ZEDEs be legally crippled to the point where no reasonable person would invest in them further in 2022

Question

From Scott Alexander's US/World predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest

Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 34% chance (16 traders, as of Dec 13, 2022).