![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fdev-mantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2Fmirrorbot%252F63bf328ffc6d.jpg&w=3840&q=75)
[Metaculus] Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?
Mini
0
Jan 8
50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if the winner of 2024 United States presidential election wins a plurality of votes. If the winner does not win a plurality of votes it will resolve as No.
It will resolve on the date Congress certifies the vote or selects the president in the event of no candidate receiving a majority.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will the runner-up in the 2024 US Presidential Election accept their defeat by Dec 31, 2024?
78% chance
"At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?"
49% chance
At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?
"At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?"
57% chance
Will Dwayne Johnson win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
18% chance
At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2025?
Will Biden win?
50% chance
Will Emmanuel Macron win the 2022 French Presidential election?
68% chance
If Kamala Harris becomes the Democratic nominee, will she win the 2024 election?
33% chance
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
43