Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if the winner of 2024 United States presidential election wins a plurality of votes. If the winner does not win a plurality of votes it will resolve as No.

It will resolve on the date Congress certifies the vote or selects the president in the event of no candidate receiving a majority.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.