Will PredictIt think Donald Trump is the most likely 2024 GOP nominee by the end of 2022?
2
100Ṁ223Jan 1
27%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
From Scott Alexander's US/World predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Related questions
Related questions
Will PredictIt think Joe Biden is the most likely 2024 Dem nominee by the end of 2022?
77% chance
"At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?"
57% chance
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?
60% chance
[Metaculus] Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?
50% chance
"At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?"
48% chance
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
39% chance
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
43
At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?
At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2025?
Will Trump be the Republican nominee?
50% chance