Will the project "Quantifying the existential risk potential from large volcanic eruptions via climate, food and cascading risk modelling" receive any funding from the Clearer Thinking Regranting program run by ClearerThinking.org?

Below, you can find some selected quotes from the public copy of the application. The text beneath each heading was written by the applicant. Alternatively, you can click here to see the entire public portion of their application.

In brief, why does the applicant think we should we fund this project?

In short, we don’t really know what the effect a large magnitude volcanic eruption will have on our modern world, this has received very little interest from disciplines outside volcano science. Climate perturbations could induce water, food and resource limitations on a hemispheric to global scale, with some initial estimates of food losses equivalent to the dietary intake of 2-3 billion people. The project will provide preliminary rationale and roadmap for mitigating the risk from large magnitude volcanic eruptions. It will provide an evidence base for ongoing conversations with policymakers (facilitated by Simon Institute), humanitarian organisations (Red Cross), funders, philanthropy and governments. The work will aim to engage the scientific community into the neglected field, creating a ‘multiplier effect’. It may (depending on outcomes) shift the ‘cause prioritisation’ in effective altruism compared to other catastrophic risks.

What are the activities that the project involves?

We propose to do cutting-edge research to do a ‘deep-dive’ exploring the following:

a) To use expert elicitation to establish reasonable worst-case eruption scenarios and combine these with climate modelling to assess cooling/hydrological cycle impacts resulting from a single volcanic eruption or multiple cumulative eruptions.

b) To identify the types of eruptions which pose the biggest threat to regions sensitive to food and water shortage e.g. shifts to tropical monsoons, which 70% of the global population rely on.

c) To run a horizon scan with the global volcano research community to identify the big questions remaining in the field, and to establish probabilities as to where the next eruptions identified in a) and b) might take place.

d) To conduct system modelling to determine the concentration of areas with globally important infrastructure and trade along with financial modelling to understand extent of potential damages.

e) To host interdisciplinary workshops to ascertain viable paths to societal collapse, bringing together experts in climate and food modelling, critical infrastructure, volcanology and civil protection to explore the potential risks, and cascading mechanisms linked to high impact volcanic eruptions.

f) To better constrain the potential loss of life due to all factors considered in the event of a large eruption

g) To use machine learning to identify volcanoes capable of large eruptions based on different attributes.

Figure 1: Theory of Change for this proposal

How much funding are they requesting?

$254,195

What would they do with the amount just specified?

Funding for this project in an ideal setting would cover a salary contribution towards both Mike Cassidy and Lara Mani and also for additional researchers to conduct climate and food modelling. Funding also covers the project activities as defined below:

1 year of funding:

Salary expenses: $175,078:

Other Expenses: $35,000:

Total funding requested: $231,086 + 10% buffer = $254,195

Here you can review the entire public portion of the application (which contains a lot more information about the applicant and their project):

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1n7g66SBlgZFPQPoBwe2CELETFCeXsvYQYvp-zahfJ1s/edit