How many more markets will I create by May 1, 2022?
Basic
2
Ṁ20May 2
42%
chance
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1W
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I will resolve this market by choosing a random real number between 0 and 100, and resolving this market to YES if that number is less than the number of markets I've created, not including this market or previously created markets (equivalently, it is the total number of markets I've created minus 5). I will not conduct any trading on this market.
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This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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1,000and
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Reasons for YES: Tom's first market was Jan 15, and has made 5 markets in the span of a week; extrapolating linearly gets you to around 60-70 markets
Reasons for NO: No one has close to 50 markets atm; now that antes are required, the minimum M$10 imposes a floor on how many total markets one can create without buying more currency
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