Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least on the scale of GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve positively if a panel of AI experts chosen by Metaculus concludes at any point before January 1st, 2025 that a model with capabilities at least as impressive as GPT-4 is widely available for download.
While there is no ideal way to compare the capabilities of various LLMs, this panel of experts will be called if credible reports arise that a powerful LLM believed to be as impressive as GPT-4 is widely available for download. This panel of experts will then determine if such an LLM meets the threshold to be considered as powerful as GPT-4.
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