Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve positively if credible sources report that a major cyberattack, virus, or worm that uses LLMs results in any of the following:
At least one person is killed
There is at least 10 million dollars worth of damage
a medical facility, government facility, or company with a market value of at least 100 million dollars is unable to continue basic functions at any given point because of such a cyberattack, worm, or virus.
If none of these scenarios occur before January 1st 2025, this question will resolve negatively.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.