[Metaculus] Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avia...5N1 globally before 2025?
Basic
2
Ṁ25Jan 2
55%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, after April 11, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that at least one case of human-to-human spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has occurred globally.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a new COVID variant with an impact greater than Omicron in 2022 or 2023?
46% chance
[Metaculus] Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way...before January 1st, 2025?
50% chance
[Metaculus] Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?
50% chance
[ACX2024] Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?
50% chance
[Metaculus] Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20...e US before July 1, 2025?
50% chance
[Kalshi] Will the CDC identify a new variant of concern by December 31, 2024?
50% chance
[Metaculus] Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?
50% chance
[Metaculus] Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least on the scale of GPT-4 be wide...before January 1st, 2025?
50% chance
Will there be a 2022 SARS-CoV-2 variant named "Upsilon"?
54% chance
"Will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines in 2023?"
44% chance