"Will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines in 2023?"
Mini
1
Ṁ80Dec 31
44%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question will resolve positive if in the opinion of the judges the scientific consensus is that getting all currently-recommended vaccines, including the two original vaccines and the Omicron booster, decreases risk of the new variant by less than 50%.
This is question #43 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
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