"Will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines in 2023?"
Basic
1
Ṁ80Dec 31
44%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question will resolve positive if in the opinion of the judges the scientific consensus is that getting all currently-recommended vaccines, including the two original vaccines and the Omicron booster, decreases risk of the new variant by less than 50%.
This is question #43 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a new COVID variant with an impact greater than Omicron in 2022 or 2023?
46% chance
Will at least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22?
48% chance
[Kalshi] Will the CDC identify a new variant of concern by December 31, 2024?
50% chance
"Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?"
45% chance
"Will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action in 2023?"
62% chance
Will there be a 2022 SARS-CoV-2 variant named "Upsilon"?
54% chance
[Metaculus] Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20...e US before July 1, 2025?
50% chance
"Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?"
52% chance
"Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?"
31% chance
Will another long-mysterious disease turn out to have been caused by a Virus all along before 2023?
46% chance