"Will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines in 2023?"
Basic
1
Ṁ80
Dec 31
44%
chance

This question will resolve positive if in the opinion of the judges the scientific consensus is that getting all currently-recommended vaccines, including the two original vaccines and the Omicron booster, decreases risk of the new variant by less than 50%.

This is question #43 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules