Will there be a new COVID variant with an impact greater than Omicron in 2022 or 2023?
8
100Ṁ1463Jan 2
46%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Impact will be judged in terms of hospitalizations, deaths, societal consequences, and general effects on the resumption of "normal life".
Jan 14, 7:18pm: #Covid #Variants #COVID19
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-(b.1.1.529)-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern It is unclear if this will be bad enough to be considered separate from Omicron, but it seems to be even more infectious.
Related questions
Related questions
[Metaculus] Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20...e US before July 1, 2025?
50% chance
"Will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines in 2023?"
44% chance
Will there be a 2022 SARS-CoV-2 variant named "Upsilon"?
54% chance
[Kalshi] Will the CDC identify a new variant of concern by December 31, 2023?
50% chance
Will WHO designate another Variant Of Concern by the end of 2022?
59% chance
[Kalshi] Will the CDC identify a new variant of concern by December 31, 2024?
50% chance
What will the trajectory of Covid be in the US for 2022?
Will another long-mysterious disease turn out to have been caused by a Virus all along before 2023?
46% chance
"Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?"
45% chance
"Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?"
31% chance