Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2025, any three of the following government or media sources conclude that Israel has used white phosphorus in an illegal or improper manner any time after October 7, 2023:

• The United Kingdom

• The United States

• France

• Germany

• Japan

• South Korea

• Israel

• The United Nations

• The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW)

• Reports published by one of the following sources and based on independent investigations conducted by the same source or commissioned by the same source each also count as one qualifying report

  • BBC

  • The Guardian

  • AP

  • Reuters

The use of white phosphorus must be explicitly stated by these sources, including an assertion that the use was improper or illegal, and the reported use must occur within the stated timeframe. Negative statements do not in themselves resolve this question as No. The question will resolve as No if no such use is reported by the deadline. Any use reported after the deadline will not count towards the resolution of this question.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.