[ACX2024] Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?
Basic
0
Jan 2
50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
The question will resolve as Yes if at any time in 2024, the International Atomic Energy Agency reports, in connection with any nuclear power plant within the borders of Ukraine – as they stood in December 2021 – an accident of level 5, 6 or 7 of the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?
39% chance
Will Ukraine be an official member of NATO by 2025?
62% chance
"Will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area in 2023?"
63% chance
[ACX2024] Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?
50% chance
[ACX2024] Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?
59% chance
[ACX2024] Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
50% chance
Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?
63% chance
Will there be a major flare-up (worse than past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine conflict in 2022?
37% chance
Will there be over 200 Ukrainian Military deaths by the end of March 2022
42% chance
[ACX2024] Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?
50% chance