"Will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war in 2023?"
Basic
3
Ṁ70
Dec 31
72%
chance

A formal cease-fire will count, as long as it remains substantially in effect at the resolution time. Minor violations won’t count against this as long as both sides and the international media agree it is still substantially in effect. An informal cease-fire will count if it involves at least one month without significant military action and the international media dubs it a de facto cease fire. A cease-fire which is signed but then substantially broken before 1/1/24 will not count.

This is question #5 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
predicts YES

sdfsdfsdfdsfsdfds

predicts YES

@IngaWei sdfdkfjldjk

predicts YES

@IngaWei dfslfksdjlf

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules