"Will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia at the end of 2023?"
2
90Ṁ170Dec 31
86%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If there is active fighting over the city, whoever controls the main train station (or, if destroyed, the piece of ground where the train station used to be) is counted as controlling the city.
This is question #4 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
"Will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk at the end of 2023?"
43% chance
"Will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol at the end of 2023?"
51% chance
Will Ukraine fulfill its obligations with respect to Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast by 2023?
51% chance
[ACX2024] Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?
59% chance
"Will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war in 2023?"
72% chance
"Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2023?"
56% chance
"Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2023?"
33% chance
"Will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area in 2023?"
63% chance
Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?
63% chance
[Metaculus] Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?
61% chance