"Will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk at the end of 2023?"
Basic
1
Ṁ30Dec 31
43%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If there is active fighting over the city, whoever controls the main train station (or, if destroyed, the piece of ground where the train station used to be) is counted as controlling the city.
This is question #3 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?
39% chance
"Will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol at the end of 2023?"
51% chance
[ACX2024] Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?
59% chance
Will Ukraine be an official member of NATO by 2025?
62% chance
Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?
63% chance
"Will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area in 2023?"
63% chance
Will there be over 200 Ukrainian Military deaths by the end of March 2022
42% chance
Will Ukraine fulfill its obligations with respect to Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast by 2023?
51% chance
[ACX2024] Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?
50% chance
"Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2023?"
56% chance