"Will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area in 2023?"
Basic
5
Ṁ120Dec 31
63%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
We will make this a judgment call but generally resolve positive if at least 25 civilians have to evacuate.
This is question #7 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?
39% chance
Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?
63% chance
"Will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents) in 2023?"
41% chance
"Will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol at the end of 2023?"
51% chance
Will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline be blocked or sanctioned by 2023?
36% chance
"Will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk at the end of 2023?"
43% chance
"Will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war in 2023?"
72% chance
Will there be a major flare-up (worse than past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine conflict in 2022?
37% chance
"Will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people in 2023?"
33% chance
"Will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine in 2023?"
37% chance