"Will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people in 2023?"
Basic
1
Ṁ70Dec 31
33%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is question #9 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
[ACX2024] Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
50% chance
"Will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents) in 2023?"
41% chance
[ACX2024] Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?
65% chance
[ACX2024] Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?
72% chance
"Will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area in 2023?"
63% chance
[ACX2024] Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?
50% chance
"Will a major US political figure be killed or wounded in an assassination attempt in 2023?"
67% chance
[Metaculus] Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?
50% chance
"Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?"
45% chance
[Metaculus] Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?
50% chance