"Will a major US political figure be killed or wounded in an assassination attempt in 2023?"
Basic
2
Ṁ50Dec 31
67%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Qualifying political figures are the President, VP, any Cabinet secretary, any member of Congress, any Supreme Court Justice, or any state governor. Any injury, no matter how slight, counts as a “wound” for this question, as long as the assassin was in our judgment intending to kill their victim.
This is question #24 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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