Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as "Yes" if, on July 15, 2024:

Donald Trump has been officially removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office (President, Senate, House of Representatives) under the grounds of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.

The removal or block is confirmed through official state government announcements, court decisions, legal documentation, or credible media reports. Speculative reports, opinion pieces, or unofficial announcements will not suffice for resolution.

The question will resolve as "No" if these conditions are not met as of July 15, 2024.

Note: The question does not account for legal battles, appeals, or subsequent reversals that might occur after the mentioned date. It strictly pertains to whether Donald Trump has been removed from any state's primary election ballot for a federal office under the specified grounds as of July 15, 2024. If Trump is removed or blocked from a ballot and then reinstated, such that as of July 15th he is not removed or blocked from any ballot, the question resolves negatively.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.