test
3
102Ṁ146May 19
84%
chance
1D
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1M
ALL
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How is this so low?
Compare this to Austin's market (https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-austin-chen-get-a-girlfriend-a) which sits at 66% chance right now
Aella has 100x to 10000x relationship-market-value as Austin. Mostly from increased hotness, relationship experience, social capital, and emotional intelligence. You can probably quantify this more precisely by comparing the # submissions to Aella's dating survey (in the hundreds?) to what you'd expect Austin to get in a similarly cumbersome relationship survey (zero. maybe 5 in a less-cumbersome survey).
Aella is much more proactive about dating (and the steps after) compared to Austin.