Full-self-driving robo-taxis generally available in at least 10 major US cities by end of 2023
6
100Ṁ265Jun 23
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Currently Waymo is publicly available in Phoenix (which does count), and available only in a tiny closed beta in San Francisco (which does not count). Here I'll define "major cities" as the top 100 cities by population.
Jan 2, 10:12am: "Full-self-driving" will mean no human driver is required, however limitations like geofencing are allowed.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Related questions
Related questions
"Will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour at the end of 2023?"
57% chance
[Metaculus] Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?
80% chance
[Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?
34% chance
Google US employees working more from office than home at some point in 2022
58% chance
[ACX2024] Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?
82% chance
Will Tesla's cybertruck go into full production this year?
31% chance
[Metaculus] Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?
50% chance
Will Google have an active AGI safety effort by the end of 2023?
50% chance
Will there be a verified encounter with extraterrestrial life by the end of 2030?
10% chance
Will most of the US population have gotten Covid by the end of 2022?
88% chance