Will FBI statistics show homicides in excess of 7 deaths per 100,000 in 2021?
1
100Ṁ30Jun 23
19%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
US homicides spiked in 2020 to over 6 per 100,000, an increase of over 30% year on year (source: https://www.npr.org/2021/09/27/1040904770/fbi-data-murder-increase-2020). If 2021 saw a similar increase, homicides could be as high as 7 or 8 per 100,000. Alternately, 2021 might have seen a similar number.
This question will resolve when official FBI statistics are reported on, likely around September 2022.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Related questions
Related questions
Will the homicide rate in 2022 remain above 6 per 100,000 people?
85% chance
[Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?
34% chance
"Will a major US political figure be killed or wounded in an assassination attempt in 2023?"
67% chance
"Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?"
45% chance
Will more than 5,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War this year?
86% chance
Will more than 15,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War this year?
27% chance
"Will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people in 2023?"
33% chance
Will there be at least $250 million in damage from a single round of mass protests in US in 2022?
12% chance
[ACX2024] Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?
65% chance
[ACX2024] Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
50% chance