Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic medal (any class) in any women's game category in 2024?
2
100Ṁ102Sep 2
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-If the games are postponed, the market will remain open until the results are seen.
-"Any class" of medal means anything bronze, silver, or gold would count.
-The athlete must have been assigned "male" at birth in order to count, and then gotten the medal specifically in the women's division.
-This question will ignore whether they had surgery, hormones, etc, and if an athlete had not transitioned at all they would still count for this question.
-In cases where it's unknown if an athlete was assigned "male" at birth, I will probe over Twitter whoever seems to have insight about that, and assume the athlete was not assigned "male" at birth unless there is strong evidence to the contrary.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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