If Keir Starmer is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election, will the Labour Party win?

Question

This resolves N/A if Keir Starmer is not the leader of the Labour Party going into the next general election, currently scheduled for the 2nd May 2024, YES if the first government formed after that election is a Labour majority or minority government or a coalition government where Labour makes up a plurality of the seats, and NO otherwise.

Jan 15, 5:50pm: Clarification: Plurality of the seats among the parties making up the coalition, not necessarily the House of Commons.

Jan 16, 2:04am: #Politics #UKPolitics #2024UKGeneralElection

Jan 16, 2:05am: #KeirStarmer #UKLabourParty

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 55% chance (7 traders, as of Mar 7, 2024).

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