What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on February 1?
7
Ṁ330Feb 1
64%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
On February 1, I will choose a random real number between 0 and 10, and the market resolves to YES if the random number is less than Biden's approval rating minus 35, and NO otherwise. The approval rating used will be 538's: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/.
Jan 21, 4:40pm: 538 currently shows a 41.9% approval rating. If it doesn't change, the market will resolve YES with probability 69%.
#shortterm #politics #Biden #USA
For randomness, I'll use random.org, with a seed consisting of the first 64 characters of the New York Times's first tweet after this market closes, e.g. https://www.random.org/decimal-fractions/?num=1&dec=20&col=1&format=html&rnd=id.Thierry+Mugler%2C+the+genre-busting+French+designer+who+dominated.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will Joe Biden's approval rating be above 40% by the end of the month?
55% chance
Will any version of Build Back Better be signed into law before March 1st 2022?
41% chance
Will at least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22?
48% chance
Will Biden’s approval rating (as per 538) be greater than fifty percent at the end of 2022?
73% chance
"Will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus dispproval) rating at the end of 2023?"
72% chance
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
49% chance
"At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?"
49% chance
Will Trump's social media app actually launch by Presidents' Day?
37% chance
At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?
What will be the best assessment of the Free response feature 1 month after release?