[Kalshi] Will there be a recession by the end of 2024?
Basic
0
Feb 8
50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will there be a recession by the end of 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Kalshi.
Resolution criteria
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2023 or 2024, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution sources
https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
[Kalshi] Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by November 07, 2024?
50% chance
[Kalshi] Will GPT-5 be released by December 31, 2024?
52% chance
[Kalshi] Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded by December 31, 2024?
50% chance
[Kalshi] Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by December 31, 2024?
50% chance
[Kalshi] Will the CDC identify a new variant of concern by December 31, 2024?
50% chance
[Kalshi] Will TikTok be banned by December 31, 2024?
50% chance
[ACX2024] Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?
50% chance
[Kalshi] OpenAI no longer top LLM in 2024?
50% chance
[Metaculus] Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?
50% chance
[ACX2024] Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?
50% chance