Will a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty be Adopted Before 2029?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CANZUK

CANZUK is an acronym for Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom.

It's used for a proposed free movement alliance amongst those countries modeled upon what already exists between Australia and New Zealand. Citizens, especially labor, could then move nearly as freely among them as among the states in the US.

Though the idea has been around for decades, Brexit has heightened UK interest in the concept as a replacement for the EU.

Will a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty be Agreed Before 2029?

The question resolves positively if a free movement treaty (or treaties) including but not limited to Canada, New Zealand, Australia and the United Kingdom is adopted.

Free Movement means that a citizen using only a passport from one participating country may (with few restrictions) move among, reside in and work in any of them.

[fine-print] Resolution needs only that the treaty be adopted by the deadline; it need not have taken effect.

Movement restrictions regarding criminals and disease transmission don't matter as long as a passport from one country generally makes one eligible to work in any. See the Trans-Tasman Travel Agreement (TTTA) as a model. Indeed, an expansion of the TTTA itself to include Canada and the UK would be a canonical positive resolution.

It doesn't matter if Scotland secedes from the UK. [/fine-print]

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.