If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

If China does not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before January 1, 2035, then this question will resolve as Ambiguous. If China does invade Taiwan, this question will resolve as Yes if the United Kingdom responds with military forces within 365 days from of the beginning of the Chinese invasion.

In line with our main question, China will be considered to have launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan if either of these occur:

• The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.

• At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule.

The United Kingdom will be considered to have responded with military forces if there is an offensive physical attack on Chinese infrastructure, ships, military personnel, or civilians, in direct retaliation to the full-scale invasion, and this attack is ordered by the British government or British military leadership. Cyberattacks will not be considered offensive physical attacks, and covert operations to e.g. assassinate Chinese nationals, will also not count.

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