"Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2023?"
1
70Ṁ70Dec 31
54%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Very loosely, an invasion of a scale such that China most likely intended for it to establish direct control over at least half of the island of Taiwan, whether or not they actually accomplish this.
This is question #10 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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