"Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2023?"
Basic
1
Ṁ70Dec 31
54%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Very loosely, an invasion of a scale such that China most likely intended for it to establish direct control over at least half of the island of Taiwan, whether or not they actually accomplish this.
This is question #10 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
[ACX2024] Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?
72% chance
Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?
63% chance
Will China have over 10,000 COVID-19 cases per day at the end of February 2022?
22% chance
"Will any new country join NATO in 2023?"
70% chance
[Metaculus] Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?
50% chance
Will China Invade Taiwan in 2022?
14% chance
"Will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents) in 2023?"
41% chance
"Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?"
31% chance
"Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?"
52% chance
"Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?"
58% chance