Will China Invade Taiwan in 2022?
11
Ṁ708
Jan 1
14%
chance
Resolves yes if the People's Republic of China attempts to physically invade Taiwan, regardless of whether they succeed #China #War #Taiwan
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
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selling to use the money elsewhere
a few somewhat related metaculus markets: - https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8885/conflict-between-prc--roc-taiwan-by-2023/ - https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7792/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2026/ - https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/
50% feels distressingly high! If true, I need to convince my Taiwanese relatives to come join us in the US...

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