"Will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over in 2023?"
2
90Ṁ50Dec 31
67%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As long as any vehicle (except, like, airplanes) can pass over the bridge, it does not count as destroyed. If the bridge is destroyed but successfully repaired before 1/1/24 so that vehicles can cross it again, it does not count as destroyed.
This is question #6 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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