Will 20% of US kids between 0.5 and 5 years old get at least one COVID vaccine by year's end?

Question

From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022

Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 57% chance (2 traders, as of May 23, 2022).

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