Will the most cost-effective charity on Givewell's cost effectiveness spreadsheet at the end of 2022 be a Vitamin A supplementation charity?
3
100Ṁ100Sep 1
75%
chance
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I will take the sum of the "Cost-effectiveness in multiples of cash transfers, after accounting for leverage/funging" values, weighted by the "Percentage of funding to be allocated to each country with marginal donations", for each charity on Givewell's cost effectiveness spreadsheet, and resolve YES if the highest-scoring charity is a Vitamin A supplementation program. If these fields do not exist, I will resolve ambiguously.
An example of this resolution procedure for the 2021 spreadsheet is here: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/#comment-77043.
This would have resolved YES for 2021 and 2020, and NO in previous years.
Jan 14, 9:13pm: #EffectiveAltruism #Givewell
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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